Everyday Homicides in Mexico Drop Over a Third In President Sheinbaum, According to Official Statistics

The typical figure of daily murders monthly in the country has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by new government figures. But, public safety analysts have warned that homicide numbers could fail to indicate enhanced countrywide safety.

Significant Decline in Daily Figures

Officials reported an average of almost 55 homicides a day in the month of November versus nearly 87 when the President began the presidential office in September. This information was provided by the director of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we’ve had over these past months is extremely notable,” the President stated, adding that the previous month the smallest figure of murders were recorded for any November in the past 10 years.

Recent Background and Government Plan

Intense organized crime infighting, coupled with the government’s heavily military campaigns to combat the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in the past few years. The figure peaked at a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s official data office.

That gave Mexico a murder rate more than 4x higher than the United States. However, homicides have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 last year. The President has attributed her public safety plan for an apparently sharper decline in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader stated: “We have a plan, we have oversight of the strategy, and we have detailed tracking locality by locality in certain cases. The approach functions. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The central components of the President's safety plan encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving intelligence and investigation work.
• Enhanced coordination between government agencies.

Analyst Caution and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety experts warned that relying on homicide data to draw a conclusion of peace was problematic. This is particularly true given the rise in different crimes such as abductions.

“This would be very good news if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the same timeframe the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not valid for assessing the context of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the desire to accurately identify and categorize remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using monthly averages of daily homicides was also problematic because it might hide periods when there were especially spiking levels of killings.

“Employing the per-day mean renders spikes of violence invisible,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

An area where the government can cite the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for serious crimes, according to official data. More than 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Anger

Yet notwithstanding these actions, Mexico remains beset by extreme violence, with several states in the grip of cartel-fueled violence. Last month there was a high-profile killing of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the past 12 months.

A short time later, thousands of young people protested in the capital and across the nation to show their frustration at graft and cartel violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a way to construct a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst concluded.